市場参入

2026年の日本市場参入:公式データが裏付ける実態

労働人口が減少する中、日本はAIおよび半導体分野に10兆円を超える公的支援を打ち出しています。日本拠点の設立を検討する外資系企業にとって、この公式統計が何を意味するのかを解説します。

Nirji Venturesリサーチ
6 min read 読むJapan · Asia Pacific
一般的な情報コンテンツ。投資、法律、または税務に関するアドバイスではありません。

Executive summary

Japan is directing public money at manufacturing at a scale it has not attempted in decades, and it is doing so with fewer workers every year. For a foreign operator, those two facts are the whole story: there is real demand for suppliers, components, services and labour-saving technology, and there is a labour market that will not give up staff easily. This guide sets out only what ministries and statistics agencies in Japan have published, and what a credible first step looks like.

The policy envelope is large and it is official

The AI and Semiconductor Industrial Infrastructure Strengthening Framework from METI, established under the economic measures of 22 November 2024, states more than 10 trillion yen of public support over the seven years to fiscal 2030, intended to encourage more than 50 trillion yen of public and private investment over ten years, with an intended economic ripple effect of about 160 trillion yen. These are policy commitments and intended effects, not measured output.

The register of certified semiconductor production facility plans from METI (last updated 16 September 2025) lists maximum support amounts rather than disbursements: 476.0 billion yen (certified 17 June 2022) and 732.0 billion yen (24 February 2024) for JASM and TSMC plans, and 46.47 billion yen (30 September 2022), 167.0 billion yen (3 October 2023) and 500.0 billion yen (12 September 2025) for Micron Memory Japan plans. On 21 November 2025 METI selected Rapidus as the operator eligible for support under the Information Processing Promotion Act, and the minister stated that METI intends to invest the 100 billion yen allocated in the fiscal 2025 initial budget through the Information-technology Promotion Agency. The phrase "intends to invest" is the official wording, and it is not evidence that the money had been disbursed.

A fifth application round for the supply-security plans from METI (conventional semiconductors, manufacturing equipment, materials and specified raw materials) opened on 7 April 2026. METI warns that certification cannot be granted once the remaining budget is exhausted. For a supplier, that is the practical signal: the window is real, it is competitive, and it closes.

The workforce is the binding constraint

•Labour force, 2025 annual average (Statistics Bureau, Labour Force Survey, published 30 January 2026): 70.04 million people, of whom 60.44 million are aged 15 to 64. Participation rate 63.8%, with 68.28 million employed.
•Effective job-opening ratio (MHLW, Hello Work public employment offices): 1.22 for calendar 2025, 1.20 for fiscal 2025, and 1.18 in March 2026. More openings than seekers, though this counts only public employment office activity.
•Foreign workers (MHLW employer notifications, end-October 2025): 2,571,037 people, up 268,450 in a year, across 371,215 establishments, and 865,588 of them hold professional or technical residence statuses. This is an employer-notification count, not the total foreign-resident population.
•Births in 2025 (MHLW final vital statistics): 671,270, down 14,903 on 2024, with a total fertility rate of 1.14. These cover Japanese nationals in Japan.
•Population aged 65 or over: 36.19 million, 29.4% of the population (Statistics Bureau estimate for 15 September 2025).

Read together: hiring in Japan takes longer and costs more than the headline growth numbers suggest, and any Japan plan that assumes a local team can be assembled quickly should be rewritten.

Foreign investment keeps arriving, but read the basis

•International Investment Position of Japan at end-2025, from the Ministry of Finance (published 26 May 2026): direct-investment assets of 384,535 billion yen and direct-investment liabilities of 58,562 billion yen. These are positions, not annual flows.
•The Invest Japan Report 2025 from JETRO: the inward FDI stock of Japan reached 53.3 trillion yen at the end of 2024, up 4.5% and a record high.
•The 2025 survey of foreign-affiliated companies from JETRO (February 2026) targeted 7,698 companies (25% or more foreign ownership, or Japanese subsidiaries of foreign companies) and received 1,520 valid responses. That is a survey population, not a national census of foreign-owned firms.

The Japan-India corridor is now codified

At the summit of 29 August 2025 the two governments issued a Joint Statement and a Joint Vision for the Next Decade. The Joint Vision builds on the 2022 to 2026 target of 5 trillion yen of public and private investment and financing from Japan to India and sets a new target of 10 trillion yen of private investment. Both targets describe investment from Japan into India, not the reverse.

The economic-security fact sheet names semiconductors, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, clean energy and information and communication technology as priority sectors, and records that the first economic-security dialogue was launched in November 2024. The published outcome list sets a two-way exchange of 500,000 people, including 50,000 skilled and semi-skilled personnel from India to Japan over five years, which is an objective rather than an admissions guarantee. At the 18th Japan-India Foreign Ministers Strategic Dialogue on 16 January 2026, the ministers concurred to emphasise economic security cooperation and growth through innovation.

How a first step actually looks

The Invest Japan Business Support Centers from JETRO exist to help foreign companies enter Japan and establish bases after arrival, and JETRO reviews and approves applications, so support is not unconditional. For a resident entity, the current JETRO guide to foreign entrepreneurs states the Business Manager requirements as securing a place of business, investing at least 30 million yen, and employing at least one full-time employee who meets the stated conditions. The National Strategic Special Zone startup visa was integrated with the foreign entrepreneurship programme of METI and expanded nationwide from 1 January 2025, deferring the office and business-scale requirements for up to two years.

The fiscal 2026 inward-investment feasibility subsidy from JETRO offered up to one-half of eligible expenditure for small and medium companies and up to one-third for large companies, capped at 20 million yen, with priority for semiconductors and microelectronics, life sciences and decarbonisation. The English notice recorded applications closing on 11 May 2026, so treat it as a programme to re-check each cycle rather than an open window.

What we would do first

1.Pick one anchor: a specific customer, supplier or distributor whose qualification standards you can test against, rather than a general "Japan presence".
2.Open a JETRO Business Support Center conversation early. It is free and it shortens the learning curve on location, hiring and incentives.
3.Run a feasibility study before committing to an entity. The feasibility subsidy from JETRO has historically covered part of exactly this work.
4.Assume the workforce plan is the critical path. Name the roles you need, test the salary band, and decide whether you will hire locally or transfer staff.
5.If you serve a certified fabrication project, ask the operator about the supplier qualification calendar, because that calendar, not the subsidy announcement, decides when you can invoice.

What remains uncertain

We have not verified the cumulative public support for Rapidus, nor current construction, capacity or process-node status for the Kumamoto and Hiroshima sites, because certified plans establish maximum support amounts rather than delivery schedules. The figure of 7,698 foreign-affiliated companies is a survey target, not a national total. Monthly labour and aging series should be refreshed at editorial lock. We did not find a currently open regional factory or office investment grant with complete eligibility terms, and the Special Zones for Structural Reform framework is separate from the National Strategic Special Zones, so the two should not be conflated.

The bottom line

The official numbers for Japan describe a market where public capital is pulling private supply chains in, and where labour, not demand, is the constraint. That is a good environment for a focused, patient entrant and a poor one for a company that wants a quick, cheap base. If you are building a Japan plan, or serving Japanese anchors from elsewhere in Asia Pacific, tell us what you are working on and the capabilities you bring. This guide is general analysis, not legal, tax or investment advice.

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執筆者

Nirji Ventures Research

Market Entry Team

Nirji Venturesは、シンガポールに本社を置くオペレーター主導のグループで、アジア太平洋地域の投資家、イノベーター、スタートアップ、既存企業をつなぎます。資本、ベンチャー構築、合弁事業、パートナーシップ、アライアンスを通じて、アジアの企業による事業構築と国際展開を支援します。

地域への理解を、対話のきっかけに。

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よくある質問

Is the 10 trillion yen semiconductor package available to foreign suppliers?

It is the public-support envelope in the framework from METI (more than 10 trillion yen across the seven years to fiscal 2030), plus certified project plans that each state a maximum support amount. A fifth supply-security application round opened on 7 April 2026 and stops once the remaining budget is used. Eligibility is project specific.

How tight is the Japanese labour market?

The effective job-opening ratio averaged 1.22 across calendar 2025, the labour force was 70.04 million, and foreign workers reached 2,571,037 at end-October 2025. Hiring takes longer and costs more than the growth headlines suggest, so treat the workforce plan as the critical path.

What does the 10 trillion yen Japan-India target mean for us?

It is a new target for private investment from Japan into India over the next decade, building on the 2022 to 2026 target of 5 trillion yen of public and private investment and financing. It does not describe investment from India into Japan, and it is a stated ambition rather than a committed programme.